Who will win the 2009 Elections

bangaram · Joined: 22 Jul 2005 Posts: 25

This might be too early to have a analysis on exit polls...on 2009 elections..

But Chiranjeevi party round the corner....what do you think will be the new scenario of politics in Andhra pradesh...with three major political parties...and one losings its ground ,because of the new political entry!!

1)Chiru party
2)Congress
3)TDP....which will get a majority among these having 296 seats!!

Andhra----
Srikakulam
Vijaynagaram
Visakapatnam
East godavari
West Godavari
Krishna
Guntur
Prakasam
Nellore

Telangana

Adilabad
Nizamabad
Karimnagar
Medak
Warangal
Rangareddy
Medak
Khammam
Nalagonda
Mahabubnagar

Rayalaseema
Kurnool
Ananthapur
Cudappah
Chithoor

Among the 296 according to my analysis!!
Chiranjeevi party would fetch-120-140

Congress 90-80!!

TDP--40-50 as it is seriously loosing grip...unless somethng big happens we can't say anything!!

Other TRS-NTTP...dey both indivually could get around 15 seats...and other parties would get the remaining seats..

I think Chiranjeevi has high chances of becoming the CM...if he chalks out his plan and money in proper way!!...glamour power is already der!!
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webgeek · Posted: Fri Aug 22, 2008 10:40 am Post subject:

Well. I do not think Chiranjeevi's Political Party will make such a biig impact in regions other than where Chiranjeevi is in fray. Politics requires good local presence and hence when it comes to constituency level, a voter will surely think more about the capability of the person who is contesting in his constituency. While the party as a whole is important too, the candidate and his capabilities are important too.

BTW, i wonder why you did not mention the other parties:

1. Left Parties - CPI, CPM etc
2. Minority Parties - MIM etc
3. Other National Parties - BJP, BSP etc
4. Regional Parties - TRS, Devendar Goud party etc.

While these parties might not get a majority per say, our past experience says that these parties have an immense role to play to bring up (or down) a Government in the state. We should never ignore their presence nor their importance.

Well, in my view, the elections will be a mixed bag. Congress might get little or fewer seats but might not get a majority per say. Next to follow will be TDP. Getting a majority to form a government will depend on the support given by all other parties to either the Congress or the TDP. Well, i haven't yet done any analysis or detailed check but that is what i feel as of now.

Congress seems to be aggressive will taking Government programmes to the masses.

TDP's CB Naidu is working hard but is failing to get the same attention that YSR once got with the Paadayatras.

BJP is always a mixed bag with a wide range of opinions on various matters.

Remaining parties have little role to play to get a majority but they are influential.

Chiru's party is still struggling at the core. Would take time to build the leadership and party cadre. It very importantly needs to build up local presence. Sure, it will be a big youth attractor.
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Stalinist · Posted: Fri Aug 22, 2008 11:38 am Post subject:

I don't think that Chiranjeevi's party will win so easily. The behavior of Chiranjeevi's fan's is causing bad reputation to newly forming party. Recently, they attacked Mahesh Babu's fans in Vizag and scolded them in the name of caste.
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statesman · Posted: Fri Aug 22, 2008 1:51 pm Post subject:

yes good topic, i have written an article in 2004 :will CBN create a hatric" was the topic and i am the only author to write my assumption. There i have projected 39 seats for TDP and they got 41 i think.

here is my projection

chru: 35-40
TDP: 19-25
cong:180-200
BJP: 2-4
CPI/CPM: 5-6
TRS: 8-10
NTPP: 6-8
Others: 3

there may be little deviation in congress seats, it may fall down to 180 which may benefit telangana suppoting parties or TDP but not in favour of chiru.

one thing is certain that chiru will be next opposition leader and it is good for him to gain good experiance.
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STATESMAN